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The writer is author of ‘Black Wave’ and an FT contributing editor
Saudi Arabia had been having a few good weeks, stepping in quickly to take advantage of opportunities in a region that has been dramatically reshaped in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 massacre, and Israel’s 15 months of war in Gaza and military operations against Lebanon. Then US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House and threw some chaos into the mix.
On Sunday, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed Syria’s new interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Riyadh. Barely three months ago, Riyadh had hosted former president Bashar al-Assad, now in exile in Moscow. Saudi Arabia had reluctantly re-engaged with Assad after having supported the rebellion against him since 2011.
Assad’s fall was an indirect consequence of Israel’s military campaign, which weakened Iran and its proxies. When the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham came barrelling down from Idlib to Damascus, the dictator had no one to call for help. Where others like Egypt and the UAE have shown reluctance, Saudi Arabia has rushed to fill the void left by Iran and Hizbollah. It has avoided the mistake made after 2003, when most Arab countries, angry with Washington in the wake of the US invasion, refused to fully engage with the new Iraq. Tehran was happy to step in.
In Lebanon, Hizbollah has had a chokehold over the country ever since it participated in the 2005 assassination of Saudi Arabia’s protégé, former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. By 2017, Saudi Arabia walked out on Lebanon. But Israel’s recent military onslaught has severely weakened Hizbollah, decapitating its leadership. Two weeks ago, Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat was in Beirut for the first Saudi visit at this level in 15 years after the kingdom, France and other allies pressed Lebanon to finally elect a new president.
Throughout all this, Saudi Arabia has managed to keep its longtime foe, Iran, on side, thanks to the Iran-Saudi rapprochement of March 2023. Riyadh, eager to avoid more conflict, especially one where it could be the target of Iranian missiles, will have been relieved by Trump’s latest pronouncements on Iran. The policy of maximum pressure might be back but ultimately, Trump wants a deal. The Saudis would still prefer to see their foe neutralised while beefing up their own defences in a pact with the US, as part of efforts to establish normal diplomatic ties with Israel.
Enter the grand Middle East chessboard with the weak square of a devastated Gaza, an emboldened Israeli far right and an American president who sees everything as a real estate deal, even when it violates international law. Whereas the opportunity presented by a weaker Iran across the region requires Saudi Arabia to show up, this challenge is of a different magnitude.
When Trump suggested last week that Jordan and Egypt take in Palestinians from Gaza (tantamount to ethnic cleansing), Arab ministers sent a letter to US secretary of state Marco Rubio, warning against deportations. Jordan said it would view it as a declaration of war. Then on Tuesday, with Netanyahu by his side, Trump suggested the US could turn Gaza into a new Riviera.
Within hours, the Saudi foreign ministry issued a strongly worded statement making clear that it was not budging from its call for a Palestinian state on the borders of 1967. Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, later explained that the point of the proposal was to pressure Arab countries to come up with their own solution for an unlivable piece of land. Arab states have put peace initiatives on the table since 2002. The key obstacle to discussing the “day after” for Gaza has consistently been Netanyahu’s government.
If Trump thinks that suggesting Israel cede territory to the US will pressurise Netanyahu, he should think again. Not only is it legally a non-starter, but Congress will not approve sending Americans into a war zone to rebuild it. Instead, Trump breathed new life into a far-right Israeli dream: Gaza without Palestinians.
The country with the most leverage is Saudi Arabia and the crown prince should remember that he holds key bargaining cards: Trump wants him to invest a trillion dollars in America and bring down oil prices. Can the kingdom get a defence pact with Trump and a normalisation deal with Israel, which it has accused of genocide, while also delivering on the promise of a Palestinian state? It’s one of the most complex high-wire acts that it has had to perform while dealing with an unpredictable president. The reward will be immense, the dangers even more so, for both the kingdom and the region.
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