Spain goes into political limbo

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Ramón Menéndez Pidal, a distinguished 20th-century Spanish historian, once observed: “In Spain, difference of opinion degenerates into a contest of irreconcilable animosity.” So it proved in the divisive election campaign that culminated on Sunday in an inconclusive result that leaves no clear path to government for any party.

Important issues such as the health of Spain’s public finances, and the impact of climate change on a country suffering an extreme heatwave, were caught up in raucous polemical exchanges as the ruling Socialists and the opposition conservative People’s party hurled accusations at each other about their ties to smaller radical right, radical left or regionalist parties.

Political polarisation runs deep in many western European democracies, but after this election the consequences in Spain for stable government are potentially more troublesome. The Socialists and PP, the dominant parties since the end of Francoism in the 1970s, have no tradition of sharing power and too often prefer to emphasise their disagreements rather than explore areas of possible co-operation.

A German-style “grand coalition” would therefore seem unlikely. Yet other avenues to the formation of a new government are littered with obstacles. As the PP emerged as the largest party, with 136 seats in the 350-seat legislature, it is right that King Felipe VI should invite Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the party’s leader, to make the first effort at constructing a government with a parliamentary majority behind it. However, the collapse in support for Vox, the hard-right party that won only 33 seats after claiming 52 in Spain’s November 2019 election, will make Feijóo’s task formidably difficult.

Vox’s poor result is nevertheless a positive outcome for Spanish democracy. It demonstrates that, despite recent electoral advances for the hard right in countries such as Finland, Italy and Sweden, the vast majority of Spaniards reject Vox’s extremism and doubt its qualifications to share power at national level.

Vox is not a direct descendant of the ultranationalist far right that ruled Spain from the 1936-1939 civil war until the dictator Francisco Franco’s death in 1975. However, the party’s denunciation of “climate fanaticism” and contempt for laws that protect women against violence and uphold transgender rights would make it a disruptive partner for the PP if Feijóo were somehow able to form an administration.

Moreover, Vox stands for a reassertion of the model of highly centralised rule from Madrid that defined Spain in the 18th and 19th centuries and under Franco. Any move in this direction under a rightwing government would risk tearing apart the good work that Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist prime minister since 2018, has done in calming conditions in Catalonia after the regional separatists’ unconstitutional declaration of independence in 2017.

For the Socialists, who performed better than expected and won 122 seats, the chances of staying in office are complicated by the fact that they would need the support not only of radical leftists but of regionalist parties, for example in Catalonia and the Basque Country. There would be a price for Sánchez to pay. His relative leniency towards Catalan separatists and his occasional deals with EH Bildu, the successor party to the political wing of Eta, the Basque terrorist group, galvanised many right-leaning Spanish voters and intensified the campaign’s atmosphere of political polarisation.

Spain now faces the prospect of lengthy negotiations over a new government. A fresh election cannot be ruled out, as in 2015-16 and 2019. Political deadlock is never good for efficient government. The Socialists and PP have a duty to ensure that their fierce rivalry does not deepen the uncertainty over who should rule Spain.