The Democratic National Convention hits Chicago

Hello and welcome to the working week.

The next seven days are not all about the US, just mostly. The headline act will be the Democratic National Convention, which officially kicks off at the United Center in Chicago on Monday with more than 50,000 people expected to attend over the following few days, including FT colleagues.

The DNC is an act of choreography to make an Olympic opening ceremony look like the Gloucester cheese-rolling contest, with momentum gradually building over the week. This year will feature speeches by President Joe Biden, then former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton before the arrival on Thursday of Kamala Harris for her coronation address.

Since Biden stepped aside to allow Harris to take the nomination, the party mood has been transformed, providing a momentum that has enabled her to pull ahead of Republican rival Donald Trump in the critical battleground states of Michigan (+1.4 points) and Wisconsin (+0.6 points), according to the (free to view) FT poll tracker.

The ghost of the 1968 Democratic gathering in Chicago has hung over this year’s DNC, however, as the FT’s woman on the ground Claire Bushey explains.

Moreover, pre-election polls must be treated with caution. There is still a long way to go until the election itself on November 5, the only poll that counts. Turmoil in the Middle East, a slowdown in US jobs growth and persistent voter concerns about inflation are the most obvious risks Harris faces, but she can also expect sharper attacks from the Republican camp and greater scrutiny of her policy plans.

So for now one question remains: can Harris maintain her momentum?

The next stop for the FT news bus this week is a little further west at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, venue for the annual gathering of central bankers, finance ministers and business executives hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The 2024 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins on Thursday and the headline act will be Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, whose speech on Friday will need to react to recent poor US jobs data and market volatility.

The economic data run is much quieter over the next few days than last week, as is the schedule for company results. Most noteworthy will be an interest rate announcement by China’s central bankers, the publication of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee rate-setting meeting and the international comparisons provided by the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) comparisons between China, India and G7 rich nations. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

Thank you to all who have written in to point out either where you are on holiday this year, or why few people in your country are taking a break over the summer. Thank you particularly to those writing from India on that last point.

My colleague Simon Kuper has a different take, pointing to record numbers getting away this year, so please read it and share your thoughts.

Being European/British, I am putting the out of office sign on my email, taking my family to the place where my FT story began 25 years ago: New York City. I will therefore break the cardinal rule on vacations and spend a few hours catching up with colleagues in the Manhattan bureau, some of whom were there when I joined as a tech and telecoms reporter in 1999.

The Week Ahead never rests, however, so David Hindley and Melody Abike Adebisi will be your guides while I am away. Thank you both.

Keep your comments coming about the most pressing items for you and what I should (and should not) be including. Email me at [email protected] (I promise to read them on my return) or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Twentieth anniversary of internet search engine company Google debuting on New York’s Nasdaq exchange

• Deutsche Bundesbank, Foundations of Law and Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR two-day conference on regulating financial markets begins on the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management campus

• Japan: June machine orders data

• UK: Rightmove August House Price Index

• Results: Lendlease FY, Palo Alto Networks Q4, Plus500 HY, Suncorp FY

Tuesday

• Takeover Panel extended deadline for Bellway to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Crest Nicholson or announce that it does not intend to make an offer

• Canada: July consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• China: People’s Bank of China loan prime rate announcement

• EU: July harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: July insolvency statistics

• Results: Lowe’s Q2, Medtronic Q1, Wood Group HY

Wednesday

• Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta speaks at Italian cultural festival, the Rimini Meeting, on debt sustainability and economic development

• Indonesia: interest rate announcement

• Japan: July trade balance figures

• South Africa: July CPI inflation rate data

• UK: July public sector net borrowing figures

• US: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

• Results: Agilent Technologies Q3, Alcon Q2, Analog Devices Q3, Costain HY, Mobico HY, Target Q2, Urban Outfitters Q2, Zoom Q2

Thursday

• EU: European Central Bank publishes the accounts of its last monetary policy discussions

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC/au Jibun Bank flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• South Korea: interest rate announcement

• Turkey: interest rate announcement

• Results: Aegon HY, Hays FY trading update, Intuit Q4, MacFarlane HY, Ross Stores Q2, Swiss Re HY, TD Bank Group Q3

Friday

• Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

• France: August business confidence survey

• Japan: July CPI inflation rate data

• EU: ECB Consumer Expectations Survey

• UK: GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year long list announced

• Sint Maarten: general election, called after the coalition government led by Prime Minister Luc Mercelina lost its majority in the 15-seat parliament

• US: The Democratic National Convention opens in the United Center, Chicago, running until Thursday

Tuesday

• UK: Edinburgh Television Festival begins in the Scottish capital, running until Friday

• US: presidential candidates expected to file financial disclosures to the Federal Election Commission covering the previous month

Wednesday

• China: World Robot Conference begins in Beijing. Also, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka completes a visit to the country, seeking to increase economic ties with Beijing

Thursday

• UK: results published for GCSEs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Also, nominations close for ballot to replace Douglas Ross as the Scottish Conservative leader

• US: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins in Wyoming

Saturday

• Saudi Arabia: eSports Awards, recognising excellence in online gaming

• Ukraine: Independence Day, commemorating the declaration of independence from the USSR in 1991

Sunday

• UK: Notting Hill Carnival, 58th annual street party and African Caribbean cultural festival, begins in west London