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Has the west turned decisively against immigration? If recent reports are anything to go by, the answer is a resounding “yes”.
In the UK, voices on the right are correct to point out the anti-democratic nature of governments increasing inflows despite polls saying the public want cuts to immigration levels. But this glosses over the fact that the very same surveys tend to show that the public wants the number of people coming to work or study (and their families) to stay the same or rise. Does the public want immigration curbed? “Yes” quickly becomes “it depends”.
Policymakers know this, but pretend not to, which results in the unedifying use of hostile rhetoric by politicians who either take no action or implement changes that they know will satisfy no one.
Britain’s latest attempts to square the circle take this to the next level. Against a backdrop of political debate about curbs, the number of people arriving on small boats across the Channel (which the public wants reduced) has risen, the number of people coming to work and study (which people don’t want reduced) has fallen, and the ratio of dependants to workers has increased.
In other words, the share of arrivals contributing to the economy and reducing pressure on public services is falling faster than the share drawing on the public purse and adding pressure to services. Both right and left are unhappy, the economy is worse off and public discontent is as high as ever. Good work, everyone.
We end up with these worst-of-all worlds outcomes because we talk about immigration as if it’s one thing when in reality it is many very different things, because we refuse to confront trade-offs — and because each side has its own conversational no-go areas.
The UK should take a leaf out of America’s book, where concerns over irregular or illegal immigration and asylum are addressed by policies targeted specifically at those routes. Even among Republicans, most would like to see more visas handed out for people coming to work or study.
A more grown-up conversation would also get to the heart of what survey data shows actually preoccupies people across Europe: not so much immigration per se as integration, and the goal of a cohesive society with shared values.
The right should cease exaggerating the negative impacts of immigration, which only harms integration, and should acknowledge that their preferences are no more aligned with the will of the people than their political opponents’.
For the left, a more nuanced discussion means wrestling with thorny issues, not just vibes. Take Sweden, where hypothetical questions elicit very positive attitudes towards immigrants, but ask how people think integration is going and they will point to serious problems. Had Swedish progressives asked these questions earlier, they may have avoided some of the problems they now face.
Integration is a continual challenge. Almost all people in the UK, including immigrants themselves, agree that everyone should speak English, yet the census data shows that the proportion of people in England who cannot speak the language at all is rising.
Similarly, while ethnic segregation is decreasing across Britain, it is rising in some pockets. The reluctance to discuss these facts has opened up space for the populist right.
Almost a decade ago, Louise Casey’s independent review of integration commissioned by the government highlighted concerns and proposed solutions; few have been heeded. Provision of English classes for adults plummeted and faith schools have been given more freedom to exclude people from other religions, not less.
Policymakers must also accept that the steady upward trend in skill levels and pay of immigrants to the UK has stalled; the most recent cohort earns slightly less than the previous. This was surely not intended.
An explicit plan, like Canada’s, both for levels and types of immigration and for their successful integration, would foster transparency and reinforce the idea that the issue is something everyone should wrestle with, not just the right.
The UK has been an integration success story so far, but there are signs of progress stalling. The reason Britain needs a better conversation about immigration is not to pander to violent criminals, it is because the current discourse puts at risk the progress made to date.
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