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The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House
When it comes to political melodrama, America is still the undisputed world leader. Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election as president came just days after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.
But while the plot twists of the US election continue to shock and bewilder, in other respects this year’s presidential race is following a predictable script. Even before Biden bowed to the inevitable and stepped down, it was clear that both the Republicans and the Democrats will run campaigns based on fear.
That will not change, whoever becomes the Democratic candidate. Indeed, if vice-president Kamala Harris is the nominee, as seems probable, the Republicans will redouble the fear-mongering venom of their campaign.
Demonising Biden, an old white guy from Pennsylvania, was relatively difficult for Trump and his “Make America Great Again” legions. Harris is a Black woman from California — the perfect target for the Maga movement.
Even before Biden stepped down, rightwing commentators were suggesting that Harris would be America’s first “DEI president”. They argue that she has risen to the top not on merit, but on the basis of policies that promote “diversity, equity and inclusion”.
As far as Republicans are concerned, DEI is the epitome of “woke” policies that weaken the US and discriminate against white men. Trump picked another white guy, the senator JD Vance, as his running mate and entered last week’s Republican convention to watch Vance speak, as the song “It’s a Man’s World” boomed out around the arena.
At the convention, it became clear that Trump will fight the election on immigration, inflation, war and wokeism. For the Republicans, these themes are all linked by the claim that the Democrats pose a mortal threat to the American dream.
Democrats will appeal to a different set of fears. Their key themes are likely to be abortion and authoritarianism. Harris, or whoever replaces Biden at the top of the ticket, will claim that Trump threatens the fundamental freedoms of ordinary Americans.
The issue that most riled the Republican convention was the supposed invasion of America by illegal immigrants. Audiences in the hall and on television were regaled with stories about migrants raping and murdering Americans. Delegates waved placards demanding “Mass Deportation Now”.
Republicans will relish trying to pin the migration crisis on Harris, who they call Biden’s “border tsar”. The vice-president says that her actual mission is working with Latin American states on the root causes of migration — not securing the Mexican border. But that distinction is likely to get lost in the tumult of an election campaign.
The third element of the Republican fear campaign is war. Trump has repeatedly warned that a third world war is an imminent danger. His party will claim that only he is strong enough to deter America’s enemies and prevent the US from being dragged into conflict.
With characteristic hyperbole, Trump has also claimed that America is suffering from the worst inflation in its history. That is nonsense. But a reported 25 per cent increase over four years in the price of groceries is damaging enough for the Democrats. The party will find it hard to run a positive campaign on the economy highlighting low unemployment. So the Democrats will also go negative and run a fear-based campaign focused on the deep misgivings of many Americans about Trump.
Outlining the Republican party’s plans to tackle illegal immigration, Trump’s advisers have talked about using the National Guard to round up millions of people, and building massive deportation camps. Their willingness to air such proposals suggests that they know that their position is popular — at least in theory.
It is the issues Republicans are quiet about that Democrats will highlight. For decades, Republicans have demanded a national ban on abortion. The Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe vs Wade in 2022 made that suddenly possible. That, in turn, frightened voters, particularly women, across the US — and may have helped the Democrats put in an unexpectedly strong performance in the 2022 midterm elections.
In response, the Republican platform — which bears Trump’s imprint (right down to the Random Use of capital letters) — has now dropped the demand for a national ban on abortion. Nonetheless, Democrats see the issue as a key Republican vulnerability. Harris’s backers believe that she is a particularly effective campaigner on abortion.
Another issue that was conspicuous by its absence from the Republican convention was Trump’s attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. On the convention floor, I found delegates who were prepared to state that January 6 2021 was a “great day”. But no one speaking from the platform wanted to venerate, or even mention, the pro-Trump mob that stormed the Capitol that day.
Trump himself briefly alluded to his claims that the 2020 election was stolen, when he strayed off script during his marathon acceptance speech. But his campaign managers want to bury that issue. They know the fear that Trump is a would-be dictator remains the Democrats’ strongest card.
The bleak reality is that presidential campaigns that offer hope and optimism look like a thing of the past. The outcome of the 2024 election will turn on which party is most effective at terrifying the voters.
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