Ukraine faces a critical gap in western artillery ammunition needed to withstand Russian attacks, officials have warned, as US assistance runs out and Europe fails to hit its own targets for increased arms production.
Kyiv has already been struggling to hold back Russia’s troops along a 1,500km active frontline, with Ukrainian forces rationing stockpiles and firing only about a third the number of rounds they need each day to maintain their position. Further aggravating their situation is the failure in Washington to pass $60bn in military and financial aid, which means most American shipments are at an effective pause, while a promised European ramp-up of production has not been fast enough, according to US and European officials.
The congressional delay risked creating an “airbubble” or “gap in the hose” of supplies to Kyiv, said a senior US military official.
The US Senate on Thursday voted to move forward with more debate over a new bill to send $60bn in additional funds to Ukraine, giving some hope of a last-gasp breakthrough to secure more lethal aid, but Congress’s backing remains far from certain.
Western officials have warned that the coming months will stretch Ukraine’s ability to fight with fewer resources, with Russia already exploiting the resource advantage to make gains in key locations such as around the strategic town of Avdiivka.
“This is really as grave as we have been portraying it,” a US defence official said, noting that the US had run out of money to fund new weapons contracts for Ukraine or funds that would allow the Pentagon to take inventory from its stockpiles and replenish those stocks.
“My take is that this is a very grim scenario,” the defence official said, adding that the Pentagon was particularly concerned about maintaining Ukrainians’ air defence systems and ammunition supplies.
“It is a desperate situation on the front lines for the Ukrainians, far worse than they are letting on,” said a senior Nato diplomat.
Nearly two years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Moscow’s superior ammunition and manpower has forced Ukraine to adopt a strategy of “active defence” this year, after a much-vaunted counteroffensive in 2023 failed to make a significant breakthrough.
The risk of a gap in military assistance was “the main concern” for the first half of this year, a senior European diplomat said, warning that even holding on to current positions would be hard for Ukrainians to achieve
“It will not be easy for the Europeans to substitute for the US. That’s not entirely realistic,” said one senior European diplomat. “Can [the EU] be enough if the US changes course of its direction? I’m not sure.”
President Joe Biden acknowledged the problem this week, saying the US was the “essential nation”. His national security adviser Jake Sullivan added on Wednesday that there was “no alternative” to the scale of resources that the US could offer — if Congress authorises more spending on Ukraine aid.
The European diplomat expressed concerns when “discussing the tactical situation” with Ukrainian commanders who were aware “they will suffer . . . and it will be very hard for them to make advances”.
The EU had pledged to send 1mn 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine in the 12 months to March, but has admitted that it will fail to hit that target. Officials now say that they will reach a new target of expanding its 155mm production capacity to 1.4mn shells by the end of 2024.
“The old truism still holds true — the side with the most ammunition to fight usually wins,” wrote Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s defence minister, in a letter to Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, sent late last month and seen by the FT.
“The shortage is increasing day by day,” he wrote. “The enemy’s ability to outshoot the Armed Forces of Ukraine by more than 3:1 is only getting worse.”
Umerov said that Ukraine’s “absolute critical daily minimum requirement” was 6,000 artillery shells, but his forces were currently only able to fire 2,000 each day.
Borrell responded in a speech to Ukraine’s parliament this week: “I know that on ammunition your needs are higher than [Europe can provide]. I have been talking with your military staff, and I know that you need more.”
Nowhere along the active frontline is the shortage of western artillery felt more acutely than in Avdiivka. Russian forces have recently launched a fresh wave of assaults on the industrial Ukrainian town that serves as a gateway to nearby Donetsk, the Russian-held strategic regional centre.
For months Russia has deployed brutal meat grinder-style tactics in its assaults on the city, leading to an average of 1,000 dead and injured Russian troops each day.
This week, Russian soldiers entered the town limits, entrenched themselves, and began tightening their noose around Ukrainian forces, according to Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian military journalist embedded with troops in Avdiivka.
“Ammunition . . . and supplies are also extremely limited, the enemy has a great advantage in means of destruction,” he wrote on Telegram.
Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program said that Kyiv “faces two acute issues right now: a lack of ammunition and a lack of infantry . . . The longer these two issues are not properly addressed, the more Ukraine’s disadvantage will grow”.
Read the full article here
