When spy chiefs from the US and Israel sit down for talks in Doha aimed at securing the release of Israeli hostages and ending the war in Gaza, they potentially hold the key not just to what happens in the besieged territory, but also to the escalatory spiral of regional hostilities.
The negotiations expected on Thursday will be at least the seventh time that CIA director Bill Burns and Israeli counterpart David Barnea have met since December, as the US and its fellow mediators Qatar and Egypt have battled to convince Israel and Hamas to agree a deal.
But this round of talks — initially focusing on Israel’s position — have been given fresh urgency by the looming threat that Iran and its regional proxy forces will retaliate against Israel for the back-to-back assassinations last month of two militant leaders.
With the Middle East gripped by angst, the US and its allies believe a ceasefire and halt to the Gaza war is the most realistic pathway to ending the cycle of regional hostilities it triggered.
“It’s the only game in town in terms of ceasefire diplomacy,” said Michael Wahid Hanna at the Crisis Group think-tank.
To succeed, the mediators will have to break a months-long deadlock between Israel and Hamas — arch-foes deeply distrustful of one another who have been at war for ten months.
The talks take place two weeks after Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader and its main negotiator, was assassinated in Tehran in an attack that Hamas and Iran blamed on Israel.
Only last month there were hopes of a breakthrough, as Hamas — under pressure externally and internally — softened its demands by agreeing to delay talks on how the war ends until after the first phase of the three-stage agreement that the US has proposed.
Mediators deemed this a significant concession, as the militant group had previously insisted it would only enter an agreement if a permanent end to the war was pre-guaranteed, something Israel had vehemently rejected.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then put forward new demands that dashed hopes of progress.
The big sticking points are his insistence that Israel will not withdraw from the Gaza-Egypt border region, known as the Philadelphi corridor, or allow the free “unvetted” movement of displaced Palestinians back to the strip’s north.
Netanyahu insists he has not added new conditions, blaming Hamas for the deadlock.
But it is Israel’s demands that are expected to be the focus of Thursday’s talks called by US President Joe Biden and the leaders of Qatar and Egypt. The leaders said mediators would present a “bridging proposal” if necessary.
Netanyahu’s stance has put him at odds with his security chiefs — including Barnea and defence minister Yoav Gallant — who are in favour of a deal.
They believe Israel’s Gaza offensive has severely debilitated Hamas’s capacity and that the window to free the dozens of remaining living hostages is rapidly closing, people familiar with the situation say.
But Netanyahu is loath to alienate far-right coalition allies who oppose a deal and who are critical to his political survival. His intransigence has increasingly frustrated Washington, analysts say, even as US officials publicly put the onus on Hamas to get a deal over the line.
A diplomat briefed on the talks said the key issue would be whether the US could convince Netanyahu “to take his wins and back down” on the new demands.
Another person briefed on the talks said: “Everyone knows what Netanyahu doesn’t want but no one knows what he wants.”
Hanna said the US could put more pressure on Netanyahu if it chose to, including being more explicit about the reasons for the deadlock and using its diplomatic and military support for Israel as leverage. Washington approved $20bn in arms sales to Israel this week.
“There hasn’t been requisite pressure from the US side on Netanyahu himself,” he said. “If they want to see a different outcome it’s very likely they’re going to have to use different tools.”
Hamas was never scheduled to be present at Thursday’s talks. The mediators always meet the warring parties separately, with Qatar and Egypt handling negotiations with the militant group.
But Hamas wants mediators to force Israel to accept the proposal that it agreed to last month — with its concessions — “instead of going to more rounds of negotiations or new proposals that provide cover for the occupation’s aggression”.
Haniyeh, who was considered relatively pragmatic, has been replaced as Hamas’s political leader by Yahya Sinwar, the militant’s leader in Gaza and mastermind of the October 7 attack that triggered the war.
Sinwar was always key to the outcome of the talks as he controls Hamas’s forces in the strip, but the move cements his grip over the militants.
Still, the group has other senior political leaders based in Doha who are part of its negotiating team and it has continued to engage with mediators in the wake of Haniyeh’s killing, said another official briefed on the talks.
The official added that Hamas had informed mediators that it would be willing to meet them after the Thursday meeting “if there are developments or a serious response from Israel”.
“Hamas wants a ceasefire because the people in Gaza are desperate. They are losing popularity and they realise this. Also the military situation is very difficult for them,” said an Arab official.
“About Israel, it’s really hard to say . . . It’s really linked to internal politics and the internal politics are total chaos.”
Even if there is progress, is it not clear that it will be sufficient to prevent Iran and Hizbollah from responding to the assassinations. Tehran has long called for a ceasefire in Gaza, but has said its response to Haniyeh‘s killing is a “matter totally unrelated”.
Yet Biden is banking that the talks can keep Iran’s retaliation in check. Asked on Tuesday if a ceasefire deal would prevent an Iranian attack on Israel, he replied: “That’s my expectation.”
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