Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s authoritarian president, has overseen a slow-motion economic collapse, an exodus of millions of people, and escalating oppression during his 11 years in office.
But the deeply unpopular leader now faces one of his toughest challenges ahead of elections on July 28 — and she is not even listed on the ballot paper. The banned opposition leader María Corina Machado has helped to secure a commanding lead for her proxy in the race, little-known former diplomat Edmundo González.
That has prompted Maduro to launch a charm offensive to try to win the public over, appearing on TikTok and at rallies with a spry, avuncular persona. The leader who has presided over an economic disaster dances, poses for selfies and sings for his audience.
At a campaign rally in a downtrodden Caracas neighbourhood on a balmy afternoon after two merengue singers worked up attendees, Maduro framed the election as a choice between a relatable everyman and a pliant stand-in for the elite.
“Do you want a puppet president, who is weak, who can be manipulated and who nobody has heard of?” he asked the crowd, some decked out in the crimson of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela. “Or do you want a president from the barrio [neighbourhood], of the people?”
Maduro is seeking a third consecutive term, having inherited power in 2013 from his late populist mentor Hugo Chávez, the founder of the country’s ongoing Bolivarian Revolution, which combines a state-led economy with nationalism. High oil revenues underwrote generous social spending under Chávez, while sinecures were handed to inexperienced loyalists.
But Chávez benefited from personal charisma — and high oil prices. Maduro has doubled down on his mentor’s authoritarianism as the economy contracted 75 per cent in the eight years to 2021, and about 7.7mn Venezuelans fled, more than a quarter of the population. Protests are violently put down by the military. Many opposition figures have been jailed or exiled, while the country has relied on support from Russia, Iran, Turkey and China.
Now, analysts wonder how Maduro will stay in power, with even bearish pollsters giving González a lead of 20 per cent.
“Authoritarians love holding elections, which continue to be a critical source of legitimacy, both externally and domestically,” said Steven Levitsky, professor of government at Harvard University and the co-author of How Democracies Die.
“If you know you’re unpopular, and Maduro knows he’s unpopular, and you don’t want to lose power, then you must take steps to avoid a truly competitive election early on.”
Maduro has already taken some of those steps. He controls the courts and electoral authorities. Opposition-friendly media are limited to operating online, with critics of the government absent from state-run broadcasters while “deepfake” images of Machado circulate on social media. One army general shared a manipulated image suggesting Machado had pledged to cut defence spending.
Rights groups say that of at least 3.5mn eligible Venezuelans living abroad — the vast majority are seen as likely opposition supporters — only 69,000 were able to register to vote amid a bureaucratic roadblock of impossible requirements.
In January, the government-allied supreme court upheld a ban on the candidacy of Machado, a former lawmaker who overwhelmingly won the opposition’s primary last October and has since filled squares with supporters around the country.
González is standing in Machado’s stead, though it is his patron who draws the largest crowds. Machado’s campaign has faced harassment: some 14 aides have been arrested and another six taken refuge in the Argentine embassy, while businesses — including restaurants and ferry operators — have been shuttered by authorities after serving her.
“We’re not in a normal election campaign. We’re up against the entirety of the government’s power,” said Delsa Solórzano, who stood in the opposition primary but now campaigns with Machado on behalf of González. “Maduro’s regime is capable of just about anything and the reality is that if he wants to stay in power, the only way is through fraud.”
Only a small team from the UN and the Carter Center, a non-profit, has committed to monitor the vote after the EU’s large-scale delegation was uninvited by the government. In response, the opposition is leading a drive to register tens of thousands of witnesses to keep watch at polling stations.
Maduro’s 2018 election victory was widely regarded in the west as a sham, leading the administration of Donald Trump to levy “maximum pressure” sanctions on the country and government figures.
Sanctions on the state-owned oil major PDVSA were temporarily lifted following an agreement signed in Barbados in October 2023 with the opposition committing to steps towards a “free and fair” election. In April, with the agreement unfulfilled, Washington reimposed the measures, but allowed individual companies to request exemptions.
Talks with the White House have since resumed, though the substance of them remains unknown. Some analysts speculate that they could signal a possible transition of power if Maduro loses later this month.
Maduro has reasons to cling to power. He and his inner circle face criminal charges in the US of human rights abuse, corruption and involvement in the narcotics trade. The International Criminal Court is investigating allegations of crimes against humanity by government and military figures.
“This election is a life or death situation for the government,” said Eugenio Martínez, a Venezuelan political consultant and journalist specialising in elections. “It’s only really the US that can give guarantees that the cost of leaving power will be lower for them than it is today.”
One former adviser to Maduro said the Venezuelan leader had no intention of stepping aside while sanctions were in place. “Just as the US has its definition of a ‘free and fair’ election, for the Venezuelan government, it means no sanctions,” he said.
Analysts have suggested Maduro could also try disqualifying González’s candidacy and force the opposition to either boycott the election or back another candidate already on the ballot.
As a desperate last resort, the government could postpone or cancel the election. It could also use diversionary tactics, such as flaring up tensions with neighbouring Guyana over its Essequibo region, which Venezuela claims.
But whatever route Maduro may take, he also appears keen to shore up domestic support, making fresh promises of social spending. At one campaign event, he pledged to build 3mn homes.
Having lost weight — the result of green smoothies, he tells rallies — Maduro cuts a lively figure. On his weekly televised chat show, an echo of Chávez’s own Aló Presidente broadcast, he riffs on geopolitics with an air of bonhomie. On TikTok he appears to be courting younger voters.
At the rally in Caracas, José Polanco, a public sector worker, said Maduro would win, with up to 7mn votes. “I want the 28th to arrive so that Maduro wins,” he said.
But in neighbourhoods across the capital, where many see the election as their best chance to oust the government, the president’s charm offensive is not resonating.
“I’m going to vote to end all this craziness,” said Katiuska Lugo, a single mother. Rafael Durán, a retired lawyer, said that “people aren’t afraid any more, and that’s why it’s very difficult for Maduro to win”.
Andrés Izarra, who served as communications minister under Chávez but broke with Maduro in 2018, said Maduro’s attempts to cast himself as a friendly face were not landing.
“The campaign has been catastrophic as there’s no message there, there’s no hope,” Izarra said. Asked what advice he would give to Maduro, Izarra was unequivocal. “Resign!”
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