A Storm Shadow cruise missile fired from the Ukrainian border towards the Khalino airfield outside the Russian city of Kursk would cover the 100km distance in six minutes — much quicker than most of Ukraine’s drones.
For now, Kyiv does not publicly have permission from its western allies to deploy this type of missile on targets within Russia. US President Joe Biden was due to discuss the possibility of lifting restrictions with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during his visit to the White House on Friday.
“It’s the speed of the Storm Shadow missiles that makes them so useful, our drones are much slower,” said Roman Kostenko, a decorated Ukrainian military commander who chairs the Ukrainian parliament’s defence committee.
“If a Russian military helicopter or plane is about to take off, we’d be able to hit the field fast. One of Storm Shadow’s great uses is as a preventive weapon.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long pleaded with his allies to allow the use of high-precision, long-range western missiles, such as British Storm Shadows, their French equivalent Scalps or US Atacms, to strike targets inside Russia to limit Moscow’s air strike capability.
Kyiv wants to be able to use the long-range weapons to destroy the Russian air bases and bomber fleets that carry out attacks on its territory, as well as Russian ammunition depots, troop concentrations, and command and control centres.
Ukraine has already used Storm Shadows with devastating effect in Russian-occupied Crimea, striking naval facilities and air defence installations
That Iran has allegedly shipped over 200 short range Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia, according to western intelligence and Ukrainian officials, has only increased the urgency of their discussions about the use of western weaponry to strike targets inside Russia, and not just inside Russian-occupied territory.
“Putin hasn’t needed to ask for any permission to use those missiles or [Iranian] drones,” Zelenskyy said on Friday.
The issue has achieved totemic status and become a political marker of how much risk the west is prepared to take on in its support for Ukraine.
One problem, according to western officials, is that Russia began moving its aviation assets deeper inside Russia about three months ago, beyond the 250km range of Storm Shadows and the up to 300km range of Atacms.
The extra distance that Russian bomber pilots must now fly has put “extra grit into the Russian system,” said one western official. But the move has also reduced the effectiveness of western weaponry as there are fewer aviation targets within their reach.
Military analyst Michael Kofman described it as a “Yes, Minister” situation, after the British sitcom that parodies the workings of government bureaucracies. The decision about missile permissions was so widely discussed and took so long that by the time it might be taken “there is no longer any point”, Kofman said on the “Russia Contingency” podcast he hosts.
Another problem is that inventories of Storm Shadows and Scalps are low, so even with permission for cross-border strikes Kyiv would not be able to deploy them in volume against multiple Russian targets.
“The missiles are no strategic panacea for Ukraine’s strategic military situation,” said another western official.
A third and bigger problem is even if Biden approves the use of the UK and French missiles that have US components inside them, he is unlikely to give the green light for Atacms, fearing that Russia could escalate in return. The New York Times reported on Thursday that if the US president authorises the use of Storm Shadows and Scalps, he might do so only on the condition that no US-provided missiles are used.
If Washington holds back on its Atacms, Germany — which has so far followed the US lead when it comes to providing weaponry to Ukraine — is highly unlikely to change its position about providing Kyiv with its own Taurus cruise missiles.
As Zelenskyy said as long ago as February, when Kyiv began lobbying Germany for Taurus missiles: “This weapon is very important for us. But I’ll say this: the United States and then Germany . . . it is always like this.”
Berlin reportedly has ample stocks of Taurus missiles, which have a 500km range, twice that of Storm Shadows. They also have a heavier, bunker-busting warhead.
Zelenskyy is expected to press his case with Biden when he travels to the US next week for the United Nations general assembly in New York.
Playing to US fears about escalation, President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the west would be in direct conflict with Russia if it allowed Ukraine to carry out strikes on Russian territory with western missiles — a move he said would alter the nature and scope of the war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Putin’s statement was “extremely clear, unambiguous and does not allow for double readings.
“We have no doubt that this statement reached those it was intended for,” Peskov added.
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