Courtroom politics

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Will this year’s most important election battle, the US presidential contest, be decided at the ballot box or in the courtroom? It is a key question for 2024, and one that will be tested this week.

It starts with the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Monday has been set as the deadline for the former president to raise a $464mn guarantee for a New York fraud case appeal. Trump has said he may have to offload prized assets to gather the necessary cash, or perhaps the listing of his Truth Social network this week will provide the get out of jail card.

The 34 felony charges for allegedly falsifying business records connected to “hush money” payments were due to reach court this week, but the hearing has been postponed until April. For more about Trump’s numerous legal challenges before the November election, here is a helpful breakdown of the detail from my colleagues Stefania Palmer and Joe Miller in the US.

It is not just big political battles being settled by judges over the next seven days. One of the big set piece business news stories this week will be the sentencing on Thursday of Sam Bankman-Fried. FTX’s new boss has already made himself clear on how harsh he thinks the penalty should be.

Another type of justice — the Russian kind — will be commemorated on Friday with the anniversary of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich being arrested in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg and accused of trying to obtain defence secrets. He and his newspaper strongly reject the charges and the US government has designated him as wrongfully detained. Sadly, hopes for his release have waned in the wake of the death of Alexei Navalny. This is a good moment to remember a powerful FT opinion piece from my colleague in Moscow, Polina Ivanova, about her letters to Gershkovich.

We are past peak earnings season, but there will be a steady flow of notable results announcements during the working week. Swedish fashion retailer H&M reports its first results under the leadership of chief executive Daniel Ervér, who took over from Helena Helmersson in an unexpected reshuffle at the start of February. Retail is a theme this week, with figures also due (in no particular order) from JD Sports, Kingfisher, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Asos and Ocado.

The economic data flow this week is limited, thanks in part to Purim and Holi commemorations on Monday, followed by Good Friday, meaning either a late start or early finish to the week in many markets. However, there will be updates on US and UK fourth-quarter GDP figures, home sales data and some consumer sentiment reports to keep the FT newsdesk ticking along.

One more thing . . . 

It’s that time of year when wags get to ask why the university rowing crews of Oxford and Cambridge always manage to make it to the annual boat race finals on the river Thames in south-west London on Saturday. For those not au fait with the contest, here is some background and guidance on where to watch. My question is whether my eldest son should accept a place at Cambridge to study Anglo-Saxon, Norse and Celtic or at Durham to dig up dead Vikings in north-east England on the archaeology course. Any advice would be gratefully received.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Greece: Independence Day. Financial markets closed

• India: Financial markets closed for Holi

• Israel: Jewish festival of Shushan Purim in Jerusalem. Financial markets closed

• Japan: February supermarket and department store sales figures

• Malaysia, Singapore: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• Taiwan: February industrial output figures

• UK: housing affordability figures for England and Wales

• US: February new residential home sales

• Results: Kingfisher FY, Pennon Group trading statement, Technogym FY

Tuesday

• Germany: GfK consumer confidence survey

• UK: Kantar grocery market share and price inflation figures

• US: Conference Board March Consumer Confidence Index

• Results: 888 Holdings FY, Asos trading update, AG Barr FY, Bellway HY, Fevertree Drinks FY, Flutter Entertainment FY, Forterra FY, GameStop Q4, John Wood Group FY, McCormick Q1, Mobico FY, Ocado Retail Q1 trading statement, Petershill Partners FY, Smiths Group FY, Softcat HY, YouGov HY

Wednesday

• Takeover Panel deadline for Ageas to announce a firm intention to make an offer for Direct Line or not

• Australia: February CPI inflation rate data

• EU: March consumer confidence figures

• France: March Insee consumer confidence index

• UK: Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee March summary and record on risks to financial stability. Also, Resolution Foundation labour market outlook

• Results: Carnival Q1, PayChex Q3, H&M Q1, James Halstead HY, Playtech FY, S4 Capital FY, Vanquis Banking Group FY

Thursday

• Sentencing of former chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange FTX Sam Bankman-Fried, convicted by a federal jury of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering

• Germany: March labour market figures

• Japan: monthly unemployment data. Also, monthly industrial production figures

• South Korea: monthly industrial production figures

• UK, US: revised Q4 GDP figures

• US: University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

• Results: Arbuthnot Banking Group FY, Capricorn Energy FY, JD Sports FY trading update, Walgreens Boots Alliance Q2

Friday

• Takeover Panel deadline for Julian Dunkerton to announce a firm intention to make an offer for Superdry or not, extended from March 1

• France: March CPI and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Australia, Germany, Hong Kong, India, UK, US and others: Good Friday holiday. Financial markets closed

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• UN Security Council briefing in New York on threats to international peace and security

• UK: Charities Aid Foundation publishes its annual UK Giving Report, the largest study of public donations, highlighting trends in charitable giving. Last year’s report found a decline in giving, linked to the cost of living crisis

• US: deadline for Donald Trump to find a private company to guarantee the $464mn he has been ordered to pay in a separate New York civil fraud case

Tuesday

• UK: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces questions from MPs on parliament’s Liaison Committee, with scrutiny of strategic thinking, the economy and public services among the topics likely to be raised

Wednesday

• Myanmar: Armed Forces Day. The ruling junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, who ousted the elected government in a coup in 2021, is expected to deliver a speech to mark the occasion

• US: latest hearing in the case of Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, charged with felony and misdemeanour tax offences

Thursday

• Brazil: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva meets his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in the presidential palace in Brasília on a state visit

• US: Biden hosts a campaign fundraiser for his re-election campaign in New York with former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton

Friday

Saturday

• Palestinian Territories: Land Day, commemorating shooting of six protesters by Israeli security forces in 1976 and symbolising resistance to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip

• UK: annual Men’s and Women’s Oxford vs Cambridge Boat Races take place from Putney to Mortlake on London’s river Thames

Sunday

• Easter Sunday

• Turkey: local elections