Donald Trump suffered a historic legal blow on Thursday when a jury in his hometown of New York made him the first former president to be convicted of a crime.
The decision carries huge political ramifications, potentially upending his quest for a second term in the Oval Office, little more than five months before the November rematch against President Joe Biden.
Yet, so far, Trump’s long list of judicial problems has not weighed much on his campaign. They boosted him during the Republican primary contest, as supporters rallied around him, repeating his claims to be a victim of political persecution.
The polls have budged little since the New York trial began in mid-April, giving him a slight advantage over Biden across the country and in the pivotal swing states.
But that dynamic will now be tested, as voters across middle America are forced to decide whether the criminal conviction in New York now indelibly tarnishes the former president.
“Trump will try to find a way to make being a felon a virtue in American politics,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of political history at Princeton University. “That is going to be the endgame right now for him. We’ll see how it works. But he’d rather be innocent right now.”
Polling about what impact a guilty verdict would have on voters has been mixed. In a NPR/PBS Marist survey released before the decision on Thursday, 67 per cent of respondents — including almost three-quarters of independents — said a conviction would not affect their vote.
Yet 10 per cent of Republicans and 11 per cent of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump: potentially enough to decide a tight race.
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said: “There are a lot of voters who are undecided because they don’t like either one of these guys, and this makes it harder for Trump to appeal to them. It doesn’t mean that he can’t, but it’s harder.”
Trump’s initial response to the verdict was to rail against a “disgrace” driven by a “corrupt judge”. Within hours, high-profile Republicans had rushed to his defence.
Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator, said: “This verdict says more about the system than the allegations. It will be seen as politically motivated and unfair, and it will backfire tremendously on the political left.”
Trump rushed to boost his campaign fundraising on the back of his new status as a convicted man.
The trial has forced Trump to campaign in unusual places — with public remarks in the hallways of the court in downtown Manhattan and rallies in the Bronx and along the New Jersey Shore, with fewer events in the key swing states.
“The Maga crowd, who are all in, think he walks on water,” said Charlie Dent, a former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania. “They think Trump is a total victim, he is being persecuted, and that just motivates them more.”
“But that is not the population he needs to win,” he added. “Trump needs more than his base. He needs to persuade some people.”
Bob Shrum, a Democratic strategist at the University of Southern California, predicted the guilty verdict would also increase tensions between Trump and Republicans running for Congress in swing districts.
“Every national Republican candidate who is in a close contested district will be asked about this,” Shrum said. “If they say the wrong thing from Trump’s perspective, they will lose part of their Maga base.”
In an early sign of that, Larry Hogan, a centrist Republican running for Senate in Maryland, was publicly rebuked by Trump’s campaign adviser Chris LaCivita after calling for Americans to “respect the verdict and the legal process”.
Biden and his campaign — who have struggled to boost their polling numbers this year — had largely been quiet about the New York trial until this week, when they dispatched actor Robert DeNiro to appear outside the court and attack Trump as unfit for office.
But the Biden campaign must also now decide how much to focus on the conviction, including during the first debate between the candidates in late June in Atlanta, Georgia.
“I’m sure [Biden will] find some ways to remind people he’s fighting against a felon,” Zelizer said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if that somehow becomes a line in the debate.”
“But he has to be careful,” he added. “He doesn’t want to look as if he is capitalising on this. I think it’s dramatic and historic enough — so there are ways in which Biden can let this just sink in.”
Trump is expected to appeal against the verdict, but in the meantime his sentence is scheduled to be handed down on July 11, just days before he attends the Republican convention and makes his formal pitch for another term in the White House.
He will, however, be spared more examination in court — or more potential convictions — before the vote in November. None of the other legal cases against him, including federal charges connected to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and retaining classified documents, are scheduled for trial before the election.
Republicans think that will let Trump return to more typical campaigning, away from the court steps, criticising Biden over inflation, immigration, foreign policy and concerns about the president’s age.
Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist, said: “There are some people in the middle who have some doubts about Trump, who might very well go the other way.”
“But the key is not whether they will be less likely to vote for Trump, the key is whether or not they are willing to vote for an 82-year-old guy who will be 86 at the end of his second term,” he added, referring to Biden.
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