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Russia wants to deploy 10,000 troops in the separatist Transnistria region on Ukraine’s border and aims to install a pro-Kremlin government in Moldova to do so, the country’s prime minister said.
Moscow has a small number of soldiers in Transnistria, which has been controlled by separatists in a frozen conflict for 33 years. With the enclave landlocked between Ukraine and a pro-EU government in Moldova, however, Russia is currently unable to send more troops there.
But Moldova’s prime minister Dorin Recean told the Financial Times that Russia is meddling in the country’s upcoming parliamentary election in September, in the hope that a more friendly future government would allow it to deploy more soldiers.
“This is a huge effort to undermine Moldovan democracy,” said Recean, who said the government was completely focused on Moldova’s candidacy to join the EU.
“They want to consolidate their military presence in the Transnistrian region,” he said.
Moscow’s interference efforts involve online propaganda and making illegal cash transfers to parties and voters, he said, adding that Russia spent the equivalent of 1 per cent of Moldova’s GDP on influence campaigns in 2024.
Last October, an EU membership referendum passed by just 0.7 per cent of voters, after what Recean’s government said was a massive Russian influence campaign.
“You can imagine with 10,000 troops, what the leverage and pressure would be on the southwestern part of Ukraine,” he said. “But also close to Romania, which is a Nato member state.”
The Kremlin didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Large numbers of Russian Federation soldiers were stationed in Transnistria after 1992, when Moscow mobilised forces to support the region in its war for independence from Moldova.
Since then, however, Russian forces in the territory have dwindled. There are now an estimated 1,500 troops sporting the Russian flag but most are locals who join the force, with only a handful actually dispatched from Russia.
“Currently, their forces there are almost meaningless. But with a higher military presence in Transnistria that a Russia-leaning government can allow for, they can consolidate,” Recean said, adding that he based the 10,000-troop target figure on intelligence assessments.
Most of the Russian contingent in Transnistria is focused on securing a vast weapons store in the region left over from Soviet times. Chișinău has repeatedly called for them to be removed, saying their presence is a violation of its sovereignty.
“We’re very cautious because their propaganda, their communication mechanisms are very powerful. They are spending a lot of money,” Recean said.
Moldovan border guards have apprehended citizens returning from Russia with up to $1.2mn in cash, he said, while 130,000 voters in last year’s presidential election were found to have received funds from Russian sources.
“Correspondingly, we have to step up our defences as well. But we also have to deliver on our agenda,” said Recean, who said his government is still focused on its “strategic objective of becoming a EU member”.
Cartography by Steven Bernard
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