Turnout: There is a lack of voter enthusiasm about a 2020 presidential rematch, and turnout could hint at whether US President Joe Biden or his predecessor Donald Trump is the least disliked. Trump could also continue to underperform his pre-election state polling.
Nikki Haley: This could be the night the former UN ambassador succumbs to the pressure to drop out as her chances of becoming the Republican nominee get closer to zero. If Haley stays in the race, she might not be able to woo deep-pocketed donors to the same degree.
Minnesota: The North Star State will be another test of voter sentiment around Biden’s support for Israel amid mounting civilian deaths in Gaza. Like Michigan — where Democrat voters in last week’s primary lodged a protest vote by checking “uncommitted” on their ballot — a significant share of Minnesota’s population is Arab American.
California: Voters in the Golden State will choose between three Democrats to fill the US Senate seat vacated by the death of Dianne Feinstein. Each candidate — Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff — are in different places on the party’s liberal spectrum. Record low turnout is expected.
Texas: Results tonight could detail how far to the right Trump has pulled the Republican party. Though many Democrats see potential for the state to go “purple” one day, it remains a Republican stronghold. Immigration has moved front and centre in this race, as Trump and Biden criticise each other over US-Mexico border crossings.
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