When Joe Courtney, a Democratic congressman, learnt the Pentagon was reviewing the Australia-UK-US deal designed to enable Canberra to procure nuclear-powered submarines, he was stunned.
“This was an absolute thunderbolt,” Courtney, who has championed Aukus, told the Financial Times.
The pact, which is designed to boost capabilities in the Pacific to counter China, would enable Australia and the UK to co-produce an attack submarine known as SSN-Aukus with top secret US nuclear-propulsion technology.
More than 15,000km away in Australia, the news reignited a debate about Aukus, with three former Australian prime ministers weighing in and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government publicly playing down concerns.
Scott Morrison, the former Australian leader who signed the pact in 2021 with president Joe Biden and UK prime minister Boris Johnson, stressed that it was a departmental review that “should not be over-interpreted”.
London and Canberra put on brave faces, saying it was normal for the Trump administration to review the deal and noting they had done the same after coming to power. But that review is being led by Elbridge Colby, the under-secretary of defence for policy, who has been an Aukus sceptic.
The SSN-Aukus boats will not enter service before 2040. But the US will bridge the gap by selling up to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia from 2032.
However, critics say the US is struggling to meet its production goals for the Virginia-class SSNs. In March, Colby said it would be “great” if Australia got the boats, but there was a “very real threat of a conflict in the coming years” and US SSNs would be “absolutely essential” to defend Taiwan.
The US navy is trying to boost production to two Virginia-class submarines per year by 2028, and then 2.3 per annum, to be able to supply Australia. But the production rate since 2022 has not topped 1.2 boats.
Courtney said that while the production “cadence is not where it should be”, several factors should help improve the situation, including increased US investment in the submarine industrial base. Australia has also committed to investing $3bn in the US submarine base as part of Aukus.
He said there was no need to decide on Aukus now because the president can opt not to sell the boats if he concluded that it harmed US security.
“There is no ticking clock that says that a decision has to be made in 2025,” he said. “Based on the trajectory of tonnage growth that’s coming through the industrial base . . . this picture is going to look better in three years.”
Asked why the review was needed at this point, the Pentagon said it wanted to ensure it aligned with Trump’s “America First” agenda.
Supporters say Aukus, which will enable US and UK submarines to operate from Perth from 2027, gives the US strategic advantages that help counter what is known as the “tyranny of distance” in the Asia-Pacific region.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress this year that Aukus would give the US a “generational advantage”. Allowing US submarines to operate from Western Australia would provide an Indian Ocean base and enable a “faster response time to the South China Sea”.
Paul Myler, a former Australian diplomat, stressed that Colby’s concerns had already been “baked into” Aukus. Not only would Western Australia host the largest naval base in the southern hemisphere, it would also serve as a significant maintenance and sustainment hub for US submarines.
Myler, chief executive of consultancy StratQ, said it also helped President Donald Trump achieve his goal of rebuilding American shipbuilding.
“If Colby’s review of Aukus finds the US will not be able to deliver the necessary Virginia-class submarines to Australia, then he’s betting against the Trump administration’s commitment to shipbuilding,” he said.
Ely Ratner, the top Biden administration Pentagon Indo-Pacific official, said Aukus would arm “one of our closest allies with an advanced capability that will be critical in deterring and defeating Chinese aggression”.
Several people familiar with the matter said the Aukus review was related to US efforts to get Australia to boost its defence spending, with one saying it was a “negotiating tactic”.
Matthew Sussex, from the Australian National University, said there had been a perception in the US that Canberra had been “dragging its feet” on defence spending and the Aukus review should be seen in that context.
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth recently urged Canberra to increase military spending from just over 2 per cent of GDP to 3.5 per cent.
Asked if the review was related to calls for more spending, the Pentagon said Hegseth had “made clear his desire for allies and partners to invest more in their defence and carry more of the burden of collective defence”.
Malcolm Turnbull, a former Australian prime minister, said it was more and more unlikely that the US would be able to spare Virginia-class submarines for Australia and said Canberra needed to think about a plan B.
“If the US Navy is already short of SSNs and its industry is producing too few to replace retirements, let alone increase the fleet numbers, how could any president, no matter how well disposed to Australia, part with any of them even to an ally like Australia?” Turnbull told the FT.
“But any plan B will need time to put in place. If Australia waits until 2032 to get the bad news that America cannot spare any Virginias, there will be no time left to do anything except wallow in self-pity,” he said.
“Elbridge Colby needs to be at his clear-eyed best and tell the Australians what they need to know, not what they want to hear,” Turnbull added.
But Michael McCaul, chair emeritus of the House foreign affairs committee and another big Aukus backer, said he hoped the review would strengthen the pact as US adversaries, especially China, grow stronger.
“As tensions in the Indo-Pacific near a breaking point, deterrence in the region could prove key to preventing a broader conflict,” McCaul told the FT. “Aukus provides that deterrence through nuclear submarines — the crown jewel of the sea — and advanced technologies.”
As he prepared to travel to Canada for the G7 where he will meet Trump, UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer voiced optimism that Aukus would go ahead. Albanese will also meet Trump on the sidelines of the event.
“I don’t have any doubt that this will progress,” Starmer said.
Additional reporting by David Sheppard in London
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